{"id":1388074,"date":"2016-03-30T13:00:10","date_gmt":"2016-03-30T17:00:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/community.sparknotes.com\/?p=1388074"},"modified":"2016-03-30T10:50:59","modified_gmt":"2016-03-30T14:50:59","slug":"can-bernie-win-the-democratic-nomination","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"\/blog\/can-bernie-win-the-democratic-nomination\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Bernie Win the Democratic Nomination?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"Good news for those who are #feelingthebern: Bernie Sanders smoked Hillary Clinton in Saturday’s primary, carrying Washington, Hawaii, and Alaska by more than 40 percent in each state. It was an impressive showing, as foretold by the little birdie that blessed Bernie heading into Saturday.<\/p>\n

\"\"
\nYouTube\/Oregonian<\/small><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Now the bad news: it’s likely not going to do much to help him secure the nomination.<\/p>\n

Say what?! How can he win by such huge percentages, be endorsed by literal winged doves, and still not secure a significant portion of the delegates to secure the nomination? \u00a0It’s complicated.<\/p>\n

Narrative Tension<\/strong><\/p>\n

Remember how when you were watching the \u00a0LOTR \u00a0<\/em>trilogy, you thought: these elves are super magical, why don’t they just defeat Sauron? Instead they are blowing town at a casual stroll while the magic-less hobbits do the hard yards.<\/p>\n

That’s a bit how it is with our \u00a0bird whisperer, Senator Sanders. He is full of whimsy and hope, but his forest-hued tights and bow are \u00a0no match for the polished machinery of the Clinton campaign, which has been at this much longer.<\/p>\n

There are two very important factors \u00a0working against Bernie:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Democrats allocate delegates proportionally, meaning that for every big win Bernie has, Hillary still will add \u00a0a few delegates to her count.<\/li>\n
  2. Hillary has a lead of 260 pledged delegates right now. That’s an impressive, and almost unmatchable, lead. Just to illustrate how impressive it is, it’s significantly more than Obama had at this point in the contest in 2008.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    So Bernie has his work cut out for him.<\/p>\n

    If Bernie hopes to come anywhere near Hillary’s lead in delegates, even just to tie it, he’s going to have to do a few things\u00e2\u20ac\u00a6<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Win big in states with a large number of delegates that have racially diverse electorates. We’re talking 58 percent or more in every state<\/a>. He’s only won one racially diverse state with a large number of delegates, Michigan, and by a very small margin (delegate-wise it was essentially a tie).<\/li>\n
    2. Persuade superdelegates that they should back the candidate that won their home state<\/a>. Doing this would split the superdelegate count and give Bernie an edge.<\/li>\n
    3. Prove that he can win in states with primaries and not just caucuses<\/a>. Caucus wins depends on supporter turnout, a huge strength for Bernie. But there are only two more caucuses (Wyoming and North Dakota), and both of them have very few delegates (and are overwhelmingly white, which favors Clinton).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      It appears that Bernie’s camp is recognizing this. Once a reviled insider tactic, Bernie’s camp is now embracing a superdelegate strategy<\/a>, with Bernie appearing on numerous talk shows explaining that after the next few wins, superdelegates will be more free to support him.<\/p>\n

      He’s also calling for a debate before the New York contest<\/a>, a state that holds special ties for both can states (Bernie is from Brooklyn \u00a0originally, and Hillary represented the state in the U.S. Senate and currently resides in Westchester County, outside New York City). Hillary’s camp is disregarding his request, asserting \u00a0that Hillary won’t debate Bernie until his campaign stops going negative.<\/p>\n

      \n

      Hillary Clinton camp: NY debate depends on Bernie Sanders’ ‘tone’ https:\/\/t.co\/6fwdUQQp5Q<\/a> https:\/\/t.co\/HUCEmsbyz3<\/a><\/p>\n

      \u2014 CNN Newsroom (@CNNnewsroom) March 28, 2016<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n