|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Quantity theory of money
Value of money
What gives money value? We know that intrinsically, a
dollar bill is just worthless paper and ink. However, the
purchasing power of a dollar bill is much greater than
that of another piece of paper of similar size. From
where does this power originate?
Like most things in economics, there is a market for
money. The supply of money in the money market comes from
the Fed. The Fed has the power to adjust the money
supply by increasing or decreasing the number of bills
in circulation. Nobody else can make this policy
decision. The demand for money in the money market
comes from consumers.
The determinants of money demand are infinite. In
general, consumers need money to purchase goods and
services. If there is an ATM nearby or if credit cards
are plentiful, consumers may demand less money at a given
time than they would if cash were difficult to obtain.
The most important variable in determining money demand is
the average price level within the economy. If the
average price level is high and goods and services tend to
cost a significant amount of money, consumers will demand
more money. If, on the other hand, the average price
level is low and goods and services tend to cost little
money, consumers will demand less money.
![]()
Figure 2.1: Sample money market
The value of money is ultimately determined by the
intersection of the money supply, as controlled by the
Fed, and money demand, as created by consumers. Figure 1
depicts the money market in a sample economy. The money
supply curve is vertical because the Fed sets the amount
of money available without consideration for the value of
money. The money demand curve slopes downward because as
the value of money decreases, consumers are forced to
carry more money to make purchases because goods and
services cost more money. Similarly, when the value of
money is high, consumers demand little money because goods
and services can be purchased for low prices. The
intersection of the money supply curve and the money
demand curve shows both the equilibrium value of money
as well as the equilibrium price level.
![]()
Figure 2.2: Sample shift in the money market
The value of money, as revealed by the money market,
is variable. A change in money demand or a change in the
money supply will yield a change in the value of money and
in the price level. Notice that the change in the value
of money and the change in the price level are of the same
magnitude but in opposite directions. An increase in the
money supply is depicted in Figure 2. Notice that the new
intersection of the money supply curve and the money
demand curve is at a lower value of money but a higher
price level. This happens because more money is in
circulation, so each bill becomes worth less. It takes
more bills to purchase goods and services, and thus the
price level increases accordingly.
The quantity theory of money is based directly on the
changes brought about by an increase in the money supply.
The quantity theory of money states that the value of
money is based on the amount of money in the economy.
Thus, according to the quantity theory of money, when the
Fed increases the money supply, the value of money falls
and the price level increases. In the SparkNote on
inflation we learned that
inflation is defined as an increase in the price level.
Based on this definition, the quantity theory of money
also states that growth in the money supply is the primary
cause of inflation.
Velocity
While the relationship between money supply, money demand,
the price level, and the value of money presented above is
accurate, it is a bit simplistic. In the real world
economy, these factors are not connected as neatly as the
quantity theory of money and the basic money market
diagram present. Rather, a number of variables mediate
the effects of changes in the money supply and money
demand on the value of money and the price level.
The most important variable that mediates the effects of
changes in the money supply is the velocity of money.
Imagine that you purchase a hamburger. The waiter then
takes the money that you spent and uses it to pay for his
dry cleaning. The dry cleaner then takes that money and
pays to have his car washed. This process continues until
the bill is eventually taken out of circulation. In many
cases, bills are not removed from circulation until many
decades of service. In the end, a single bill will have
facilitated many times its face value in purchases.
Velocity of money is defined simply as the rate at which
money changes hands. If velocity is high, money is
changing hands quickly, and a relatively small money
supply can fund a relatively large amount of purchases.
On the other hand, if velocity is low, then money is
changing hands slowly, and it takes a much larger money
supply to fund the same number of purchases.
As you might expect, the velocity of money is not
constant. Instead, velocity changes as consumers'
preferences change. It also changes as the value of money
and the price level change. If the value of money is low,
then the price level is high, and a larger number of bills
must be used to fund purchases. Given a constant money
supply, the velocity of money must increase to fund all of
these purchases. Similarly, when the money supply shifts
due to Fed policy, velocity can change. This change makes
the value of money and the price level remain constant.
The relationship between velocity, the money supply, the
price level, and output is represented by the equation
M * V = P * Y where M is the money supply, V is the
velocity, P is the price level, and Y is the quantity of
output. P * Y, the price level multiplied by the quantity
of output, gives the nominal GDP. This equation can
thus be rearranged as V = (nominal GDP) / M.
Conceptually, this equation means that for a given level
of nominal GDP, a smaller money supply will result in
money needing to change hands more quickly to facilitate
the total purchases, which causes increased velocity.
The equation for the velocity of money, while useful in
its original form, can be converted to a percentage change
formula for easier calculations. In this case, the
equation becomes (percent change in the money supply) +
(percent change in velocity) = (percent change in the
price level) + (percent change in output). The percentage
change formula aids calculations that involve this
equation by ensuring that all variables are in common
units.
The velocity equation can be used to find the effects that
changes in velocity, price level, or money supply have on
each other. When making these calculations, remember that
in the short run, output (Y), is fixed, as time is
required for the quantity of output to change.
Let's try an example. What is the effect of a 3% increase
in the money supply on the price level, given that output
and velocity remain relatively constant? The equation
used to solve this problem is (percent change in the money
supply) + (percent change in velocity) = (percent change
in the price level) + (percent change in output).
Substituting in the values from the problem we get 3% + 0%
= x% + 0%. In this case, a 3% increase in the money
supple results in a 3% increase in the price level.
Remember that a 3% increase in the price level means that
inflation was 3%.
In the long run, the equation for velocity becomes even
more useful. In fact, the equation shows that increases
in the money supply by the Fed tend to cause increases in
the price level and therefore inflation, even though the
effects of the Fed's policy is slightly dampened by
changes in velocity. This results a number of factors.
First, in the long run, velocity, V, is relatively
constant because people's spending habits are not quick to
change. Similarly, the quantity of output, Y, is not
affected by the actions of the Fed since it is based on
the amount of production, not the value of the stuff
produced. This means that the percent change in the money
supply equals the percent change in the price level since
the percent change in velocity and percent change in
output are both equal to zero. Thus, we see how an
increase in the money supply by the Fed causes inflation.
Let's try another example. What is the effect of a 5%
increase in the money supply on inflation? Again, we
being by using the equation (percent change in the money
supply) + (percent change in velocity) = (percent change
in the price level) + (percent change in output).
Remember that in the long run, output not affected by the
Fed's actions and velocity remains relatively constant.
Thus, the equation becomes 5% + 0% = x% + 0%. In this
case, a 5% increase in the money supply results in a 5%
increase in inflation.
The velocity of money equation represents the heart of the
quantity theory of money. By understanding how velocity
mitigates the actions of the Fed in the long run and in
the short run, we can gain a thorough understanding of the
value of money and inflation.
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Contact Us | Privacy Policy | Terms and Conditions | About
©2006 SparkNotes LLC, All Rights Reserved.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||