The Road to War
Events
June 28, 1914
Archduke Franz Ferdinand assassinated in Sarajevo
July 5
Austria requests and receives Germany’s “blank check,”
pledging unconditional support if Russia enters the war
July 23
Austria issues ultimatum to Serbia
July 25
Serbia responds to ultimatum; Austrian ambassador
to Serbia immediately leaves Belgrade
France promises support to Russia in the event
of war
July 28
Austria declares war on Serbia
July 30
Russia orders general mobilization of troops
August 1
Germany declares war on Russia
France and Germany order general mobilization
August 3
Germany declares war on France
August 4
Britain declares war on Germany
The Archduke’s Assassination
On June 28, 1914,
the archduke of Austria, Franz Ferdinand, and his wife
were on an official visit to the city of Sarajevo in
Bosnia-Herzegovina, a Serb-dominated province of Austria-Hungary. During
the visit, Serbian militants, seeking independence for the territory,
made two separate attempts on the archduke’s life. In the first
attempt, they threw a bomb at his car shortly after he arrived in
town, but the bomb bounced off the car and failed to kill or injure
the intended victim.
Later that day, while the archduke was en route to a hospital
to visit an officer wounded by the bomb, his driver turned down
a side street where Gavrilo Princip, a nineteen-year-old
militant Bosnian Serb who had been part of the assassination attempt
that morning, happened to be standing. Seizing the opportunity,
Princip stepped up to the car’s window and shot both the archduke
and his wife at point-blank range.
Reaction to the Assassination
The archduke’s assassination had an incendiary effect
throughout Central Europe. Tensions between Austria-Hungary and Serbia, which
had already been rising for several years over territorial disputes,
escalated further. Despite limited evidence, Austria-Hungary blamed
the Serbian government for the assassination. Furthermore, it blamed
Serbia for seeding unrest among ethnic Serbs in Bosnia-Herzegovina,
a province of Austria-Hungary that shared a border with Serbia.
Russia and Serbia
Austro-Hungarian leaders decided that the solution to
the Serbian problem was an all-out invasion of the country. However,
there was a major obstacle to this plan: Russia, which
had close ethnic, religious, and political ties to Serbia, was likely
to come to its defense during an invasion. Though poorly armed and
trained, Russia’s army was huge and capable of posing a formidable threat
to Austria-Hungary.
Germany’s “Blank Check”
Aware of the threat from Russia, Austria-Hungary held
off on its attack plans and turned to its well-armed ally to the
north, Germany. On July 5, 1914,
Austria-Hungary sent an envoy to meet personally with the German
emperor, Kaiser Wilhelm II, to convey Austria’s concerns
about Russia. The kaiser felt that Russia was unlikely to respond
militarily, as its forces were utterly unprepared for war. He also
had a close personal relationship with Tsar Nicholas II (the
two were cousins), so he hoped to smooth things over diplomatically.
Nevertheless, the kaiser pledged that if Russian troops did in fact
advance on Austria-Hungary, Germany would help fight off the attackers.
This guarantee is often referred to as Germany’s “blank check.”
Austria’s Ultimatum
On July 23, 1914,
the Austro-Hungarian government issued an ultimatum to
Serbia containing ten demands. The ultimatum insisted that Austria-Hungary
be allowed to participate in Serbia’s investigation of Archduke
Franz Ferdinand’s assassination and, in particular, to take direct
part in the judicial process against the suspects. The demands also
required Serbia to stamp out all forms of anti-Austrian activism
and propaganda emanating from the country. The ultimatum, written
by members of the Austrian Council of Ministers, was specifically
intended to be humiliating and unacceptable to Serbia.
On July 25,
however, Serbia accepted Austria-Hungary’s demands almost entirely—aside
from just a few conditions regarding Austria’s participation in
the judicial process against the criminals. Austria-Hungary’s response
was swift: its embassy in Serbia closed within a half hour of receiving
Serbia’s answer, and three days later, on July 28,
Austria declared war on Serbia. On July 29,
the first Austrian artillery shells fell on Serbia’s capital, Belgrade.
The Other Sides Enter the War
After this first military action, a series
of events followed in quick succession. With news of Austria’s attack
on Belgrade, Russia ordered a general mobilization of its troops
on July 30, 1914. Germany,
interpreting this move as a final decision by Russia to go to war,
promptly ordered its own mobilization. Although the Russian tsar
and German kaiser were communicating feverishly by telegraph throughout
this time, they failed to convince each other that they were only
taking precautionary measures. Britain made an attempt
to intervene diplomatically, but to no avail. On August 1,
the German ambassador to Russia handed the Russian foreign minister
a declaration of war.
On August 3, Germany, in accordance
with the Schlieffen Plan (see Terms, p. 11),
declared war on France as well. Germany made clear
its intention to cross the neutral nation Belgium in
order to reach France’s least fortified border, in violation of
its own treaty in respect to neutral countries. Therefore, Britain,
which had a defense agreement with Belgium, declared war on Germany
the next day, August 4, bringing the number
of countries involved up to six. There would soon be more.
Explaining the Start of the War
Some early accounts of World War I treat its start as
a chain of almost coincidental events: a mix of unfortunate lapses
in judgment on the part of political and military leaders, combined
with a tangled web of alliances and defense treaties that triggered
declarations of war between countries that really had little reason
to be at war with each other. Although these factors were crucial,
a number of other important factors were involved.
After all, most of the countries that came to be involved
in World War I had enjoyed relatively friendly interrelations right
up to the start of the war. For the most part, they shared strong
economic interdependencies, and trade between them was brisk, making
the prospect of a large-scale war highly unattractive.
Moreover, though several treaties in force at the time
did compel certain countries to join the war, it is a mistake to
assume that any of them joined the war “automatically.” Leaders
in each country debated whether to enter the war and generally made
their decisions only after evaluating their own concrete interests
and risks. Many of these countries had hidden motives and, at the
same time, mistakenly assumed that some of the others would stay
out of the conflict.
German Motives
Though Germany had little interest
in Austria’s problems with Serbia, it had significant ambitions
regarding its other neighbors. In recent years, Russia had become
increasingly involved in European affairs, while simultaneously
modernizing and expanding its military. German military leaders
felt that war with Russia was inevitable at some point. Therefore,
they argued, it would be far better to fight Russia now, while its
army was still poorly armed and untrained, rather than to wait until
it could pose a greater threat. Some historians claim that Germany
deliberately encouraged Austria to go to war with Serbia in order
to set off a war with Russia.
Furthermore, German military leaders believed there was
a good chance that Britain would remain neutral and that France
also might stay at arm’s length, despite its treaty with Russia.
This wishful thinking helped the German military leaders convince
themselves that the war would be winnable and also helped them to
sell their plan to the kaiser.
British Motives
For centuries, Britain had been
the greatest naval power in the world and also had the largest collection
of colonies. In the first years of the twentieth century, however,
Germany made a massive and costly effort to build up a comparable
naval fleet of its own, with the specific goal of matching Britain
on the high seas. Germany also had recently shown a stronger interest
than before in acquiring new colonies. Britain, seeing these developments
as a dangerous threat to the balance of power in Europe, argued
to Germany (through diplomatic channels) that the country had no need
for a large navy or a large number of colonies. Germany ignored
Britain’s rebuffs and continued as before. Just as some German leaders
favored an “anticipatory” war against Russia, some British leaders
felt similarly about Germany.
French Motives
In 1871, France had
lost the territories of Alsace and Lorraine to
Germany in a war—a bitterly humiliating blow that left France desperate
to regain these lands. While fearful of an all-out German invasion,
some French leaders felt that if Germany were distracted by a war
with Russia, France might have a chance to seize Alsace and Lorraine.
Russian Motives
Russia’s motives for entering the war are
less clear-cut. The period just prior to the war was a time of great
instability in Russia: never before in the nation’s history had
the tsar’s grip on power been so fragile. On the other hand, there
was support in Russia for the Serbian cause, and a military victory
would likely help the tsar politically. Nevertheless, war was a
risky proposition given the poor state of the Russian military at
the time. Tsar Nicholas II, who was personally hesitant about joining
the war, briefly flip-flopped over ordering mobilization. Ultimately,
however, he caved under pressure from overly optimistic Russian
military leaders and advisers who had strong nationalistic leanings.