Nations and States: The Future of Nation-States

Although the nation-state has been the predominant unit of political organization for most of the last few centuries, its future is uncertain. Two trends point to the nation-state as receding in importance, but these trends sometimes contradict each other. Still, globalization and devolution continue to occur at a rapid rate throughout the twenty-first-century world, and both will affect the future of nation-states.

Globalization

The first major trend is globalization. Over the last few decades, national boundaries have broken down in a variety of ways, including economically. In today’s truly global economy, money and goods travel across borders in huge quantities and at great speed. Many corporations build parts in a variety of countries, then assemble them in yet another country. Most goods are no longer “made in America,” for example, because much of the manufacturing often happens in other places, whereas final assembly occurs in the United States. The rapid growth of international investing has further globalized the economy. Globalization often leads to transnationalism, so should this globalizing trend continue, the nation-state might give way to the transnational government.

The Perils of Globalization

Since the mid-1990s, people from around the world have attacked globalization. Environmentalists see globalization as a disaster for the environment, labor unions fear for their members’ jobs in a global marketplace, and others see globalization itself as a cause of poverty in developing countries. Most governments continue to favor globalization, but antiglobalization protesters have made their mark by demonstrating against meetings of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and other international economic institutions. During the so-called Battle of Seattle in 1999, thousands of protesters swarmed the hotel and convention centers at which meetings of the World Trade Organization were being held.

Transnationalism

Transnationalism has also occurred at the political level. International organizations, such as the United Nations and the World Trade Organization, play an ever-increasing role on the political stage, and nations join them for such benefits as military protection and economic security. In the case of the European Union, national boundaries have very little meaning. All citizens can travel, live, and work freely throughout the European Union, and all internal tariffs and trade restrictions have been abolished. Some residents see themselves as citizens of a new European Union nation, not of their smaller countries. Transnational governments and groups literally transcend geographical and political boundaries.

Example: The World Trade Organization, the United Nations, and the World Bank are just a few examples of international organizations that sometimes act like governments or play a substantial role in international relations. Other examples include the Organization of American States, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The fact that increasing numbers of people around the world speak the same language demonstrates the transnational trend. English has become something of an international language, but other languages (such as French, Chinese, and Russian) are also spoken by many around the world. Overall, the total number of languages spoken is decreasing, while the total number of speakers of certain dominant languages is increasing.

Devolution

The second trend that marks the recession of nation-states concerns the increase in political power being given to local governments, sometimes to the point of autonomy. This trend is sometimes called devolution because states are said to devolve power back to local governments. In the United Kingdom, for example, Scotland has been granted a great deal of autonomy, as has Catalonia in Spain. Should this trend continue, local governments would replace national or central governments.

New Federalism

Since the 1970s, a number of American presidents have pursued a policy sometimes called new federalism. Supporters feel that the federal government has gotten too powerful and that more power should be given to state and local governments. Although the federal government remains strong, more power has been given back to state and local governments. In the 1990s, for example, Congress created block grants that gave money to states with few strings attached. States were also given more freedom to experiment with policies, such as Wisconsin’s experiment with welfare reform under Governor Tommy Thompson in 1996.

The table below summarizes the trends of globalization and devolution.

GLOBALIZATION AND DEVOLUTION TRENDS
	Globalization	Devolution
Power flows	Outward, away from the state	Inward, down from the central government
Power belongs to	International organizations and transnational governments	Regional and local governments
Power is lost by	The state	The central government
Sometimes known as	Transnationalism	Subnationalism
Examples	The European Union, the United Nations, the World Trade Organization	New Federalism in the United States, increased Scottish autonomy in the United Kingdom, in-creased study of local and regional languages (such as Breton in France)

Subnationalism

Accompanying devolution has been an increased identification with and interest in subnational groups. The prefix sub means “below” or “beneath,” so the term subnational indicates a smaller division of a larger national group. Many people are working to preserve the language, culture, and history of subnational groups. Some in France, for example, are learning to speak Breton, a language that had largely disappeared. In a number of countries, local dialects that were suppressed under dictatorial governments have reemerged after a transition to a more democratic government.

Example: With the breakup of the Soviet bloc in Eastern Europe in 1989, a number of subnationalities emerged. In the Baltic states, for example, students learned native languages rather than Russian. Czechoslovakia went so far as to split into the Czech Republic and Slovakia. In the Balkans, the emergence of subnationalism turned violent as Serbs, Croats, Slovenians, and others fought over the remains of Yugoslavia.

Predicting the Future

The future of nation-states is unclear. As trends, globalization and devolution contradict each other, so it seems unlikely that both will continue in significant ways. On the one hand, if globalization continues, then transnational governments or allegiances such as the European Union may eventually replace traditional nation-states. On the other hand, if devolution continues, powerful regional governments and subnational groups may come to dominate the political landscape. Then again, the nation-state has proven itself to be very durable throughout history. As the cliché goes, time will tell what the future holds for the nation-state.